Analysis of the coupling coordination development level and dynamic evolution of new-quality agricultural productive forces and agricultural carbon emission efficiency under the background of “dual carbon”goal

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2026.08.033

Abstract

Abstract: To systematically explore the intrinsic mechanisms and dynamic correlations between new-quality agricultural productive forces and agricultural carbon emission efficiency,based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2023, the methods of coupling coordination degree model, super-efficiency SBM model with undesirable outputs, kernel density estimation model and correlation analysis were adopted to explore the coupling coordination development level and dynamic evolution of new-quality agricultural productive forces and agricultural carbon emission efficiency. The results showed that the coupling coordination degree of new-quality agricultural productive forces and agricultural carbon emission efficiency in the whole country and four major regions presented an overall fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2023; in terms of spatial distribution, it featured a pattern of "higher in the east and lower in the west, higher in the south and lower in the north", with the coupling degree remaining at a high level all the time, and the regional differences in the comprehensive coordination index being the core cause of the differentiation of coupling coordination degree; the temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and new-quality agricultural productive forces in China from 2011 to 2023 were generally characterized by a steady improvement in synergy level, a continuous expansion of regional differences and a unimodal agglomeration in the development pattern; from 2013 to 2023, the coupling coordination degree of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and new-quality agricultural productive forces in China presented a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial distribution of their coupling coordination development showed an obvious spatial agglomeration characteristic.

Key words: new-quality agricultural productive forces, agricultural carbon emission efficiency, coupling coordination degree, spatial autocorrelation, dynamic evolution

CLC Number:

X322
F323

XIA Wen-hao, LIU Zhi-you, YANG Hong-bin, FU Ming-yue. Analysis of the coupling coordination development level and dynamic evolution of new-quality agricultural productive forces and agricultural carbon emission efficiency under the background of “dual carbon”goal[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2026, 65(8): 234-243.

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