关键词: 亚热带湿润季风, 气候变化, 作物单产, 镇宁自治县

Abstract: Based on the meteorological observations of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, annual mean relative humidity, annual total sunshine hours, frost-free period and accumulated temperature and the statistical data of rice, wheat and maize yields from 1990 to 2012 in Zhenning autonomous county, the relationship between the yields of these three crops and these climatic factors was analyzed by using multiple linear regression model. The results showed that with the increase of rainfall, the yield of wheat decreased gradually, whereas the yield of rice and maize increased; The yield of the three crops was greatly affected by natural disasters; In the event of extreme weather, the planting structure of crops would appear relatively single situation.

Key words: subtropical humid monsoon, climate change, crop yield per unit area, Zhenning autonomous county