广西与全国农林牧渔业产业结构调整协调发展的评价

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2024.03.028

湖北农业科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (3): 183-190.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2024.03.028

广西与全国农林牧渔业产业结构调整协调发展的评价

许忠裕¹, 邓国仙², 黎丽菊², 林树恒²

1.广西农业职业技术大学,南宁 530007;
2.广西壮族自治区农业科学院,南宁 530007

收稿日期:2022-04-20 出版日期:2024-03-25 发布日期:2024-04-07
通讯作者: 林树恒（1963-）,男,广西马山人,高级农业经济师,主要从事“三农”理论和乡村振兴、城乡融合发展研究,（电子信箱）gxnkyxczx@163.com。
作者简介:许忠裕（1985-）,男,广西平乐人,副研究员,主要从事“三农”理论、农业经济、农村改革和农业科研管理研究,（电话）13669689513（电子信箱）xuzhongyu888888@sina.com。
基金资助:
广西特色新型智库联盟高端智库建设项目（GXZKLM-2020-34）; 广西农业科学院基本科研业务专项（桂农科2021YT084）

Evaluation of the coordinated development of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industrial structure adjustment in Guangxi and the whole country

XU Zhong-yu¹, DENG Guo-xian², LI Li-ju², LIN Shu-heng²

1. Guangxi Vocational University of Agriculture, Nanning 530007, China;
2. Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanning 530007, China

Received:2022-04-20 Online:2024-03-25 Published:2024-04-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用灰色关联度分析法分析2005—2020年广西与全国农林牧渔业各产业产值对农业经济增长的影响,构建农林牧渔业产业产值增长贡献率的预测模型并进行回归分析,然后通过农林牧渔业结构调整对经济增长的贡献率进行协调度分析。结果表明,广西农业、林业、畜牧业、农林牧渔服务业产值与农林牧渔业总产值的灰色关联度随年份的变化呈降低趋势,渔业产值与农林牧渔业总产值呈良好的关联度;全国农业、林业、畜牧业、农林牧渔服务业产值与农林牧渔业总产值关联度呈逐年下降的趋势,而渔业与农林牧渔业总产值的关联度则呈波动式下降趋势;广西与全国农林牧渔业结构调整对农业经济的贡献率为负值,广西波动变化较大;全国农林牧渔业结构调整优于广西,2007年、2008年、2011年广西与全国农业产业结构调整为优质协调,2010年为良好协调,2019年为中级协调。因此,为促进广西和全国农林牧渔业结构调整优化,需增强林业、农林牧渔服务业等产业的能动力,因地制宜调整产业区域分布,加长农业产业链,生产高品质的农业产品,从而达到促进农民增收、农业经济增长的目的。

关键词: 农林牧渔业, 结构调整, 协调分析, 广西, 全国

Abstract: The impact of the output value of various industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in Guangxi and the whole country on agricultural economic growth from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed by the grey correlation analysis method. The contribution rate and prediction model of the output value growth of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry were constructed and regression analysis was carried out. Then the coordination degree of the contribution rate of the adjustment of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery structure to economic growth was analyzed. The results showed that the grey correlation degree between the output value and the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery service industry in Guangxi showed a decreasing trend with the change of years, and the output value of fishery had a good correlation with the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The correlation between the output value and the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services in the whole nation decreased year by year, while the correlation between the output value of fishery and the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery showed a fluctuating downward trend. The contribution rate of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery structure adjustment to agricultural economy in Guangxi and the whole country was negative, and Guangxi fluctuated greatly. The national agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fisher structure adjustment was better than that of Guangxi. The adjustment of agricultural industrial structure in the whole country and Guangxi was high-quality coordination in 2007, 2008 and 2011, was good coordination in 2010, and was intermediate coordination in 2019. Therefore, in order to promote the adjustment and optimization of the structure of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in Guangxi and the whole country, it was necessary to enhance the energy power of forestry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery service industry, adjust the regional distribution of industries according to local conditions, extend the agricultural industry chain, and produce high-quality agricultural products, so as to achieve the purpose of promoting farmers’ income and agricultural economic growth.

Key words: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, structural adjustment, coordinate analysis, Guangxi, the whole country

中图分类号:

F326

许忠裕, 邓国仙, 黎丽菊, 林树恒. 广西与全国农林牧渔业产业结构调整协调发展的评价[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2024, 63(3): 183-190.

XU Zhong-yu, DENG Guo-xian, LI Li-ju, LIN Shu-heng. Evaluation of the coordinated development of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industrial structure adjustment in Guangxi and the whole country[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2024, 63(3): 183-190.

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广西与全国农林牧渔业产业结构调整协调发展的评价

Evaluation of the coordinated development of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industrial structure adjustment in Guangxi and the whole country

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