关键词: 农户, 农地转出, 生计资本, 生计策略, 多项Logit模型

Abstract: On the basis of reasonable selection of variables and subdivision of farmers’ livelihood strategies, the data of China household tracking survey （CFPS） national integrated sample was used to construct a 6-dimension livelihood capital quantitative index system of natural capital, human capital, physical capital, financial capital, social capital and psychological capital. Multiple Logit models were used to empirically analyze the influence of livelihood capital on livelihood strategy selection. The results showed that the livelihood capital index and total index of farm land transferred out of the household had different differentiation characteristics. The larger the natural capital, physical capital and financial capital, the more inclined farmers were to choose the agriculture-oriented livelihood strategy; the larger the natural capital, human capital and social capital, the more inclined the farmers were to choose the livelihood strategy of concurrent farming; the larger the natural capital, human capital, social capital and psychological capital, the more inclined the farmers were to choose the livelihood strategy of part-time employment; the larger the human capital, social capital and psychological capital, the more inclined farmers were to choose the worker-oriented livelihood strategy. The relative risk ratio of farmers’ livelihood strategy selection was different for each influencing factor. According to this, the government should guide farmers to scale farmland management, improve social security services, improve the rural financial system, popularize non-agricultural skills training and other differentiated policies.

Key words: farmer, agricultural land transfer, subsistence capital, livelihood strategy, multinomial logit model