关键词: 复杂性, 旅游脱贫农户, 返贫演变, 产业阻断

Abstract: The theoretical deduction method was used to study the early warning mechanism of farmers’ return to poverty from the perspective of complexity, and the blocking strategy of returning to poverty based on the characteristics of tourism industry was put forward. The study found that the industrial complexity and resource dependence significantly affected the industrial sustainability of tourism poverty alleviation area, determined the livelihood vulnerability and resilience of tourism poverty alleviation farmers, and promoted the degree of returning to poverty and state transformation of poverty alleviation farmers. From the perspective of evolution mechanism, the return of tourism poverty-stricken farmers to poverty went through at least four stages of potential, initial phase, representation and chaos, which were manifested in four states of interference, tremor, disorder and error. External forces could be observed and evaluated through indicators such as career change, income increase and decrease, employment attitude and living conditions. Based on the perspective of industrial complexity, some measures to block the path of returning to poverty were put forward, such as the dominance and equity of local capital, encouraging farmers’ part-time behavior, improving the toughness of industrial organization and enhancing the enthusiasm of industrial elites for three-time distribution.

Key words: complexity, tourism poverty alleviation farmers, evolution of poverty return, industrial blocking