关键词: 农业绿色发展, 评价, 预测, 长江经济带, 核心城市

Abstract: For the analysis of the agricultural green development level of the core cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, based on the data of the core cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2020, the evaluation index system of agricultural green development level was constructed from the four dimensions of environmental friendliness, industrial coordination, production efficiency and living security. The entropy method was used to calculate the weight of each index, and the gray GM （1,1） model was used to predict the green development level of agriculture of the core cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results showed that the agricultural green development index of the core cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt had been steadily increasing year by year, but there were significant regional differences. The level of agricultural green development in cities such as Nanjing and Wuhan was significantly higher than that of other cities. Meanwhile, the degree of environmental friendliness and industrial coordination had not been fully developed, while the growth rates of production efficiency and living security level were relatively fast. Finally, policy suggestions for promoting the green development of agriculture in the core cities of the basin were put forward.

Key words: agricultural green development, evaluation, forecast, Yangtze River Economic Belt, core city