多情景下昌吉市生态系统服务价值预测及权衡协同研究

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以新疆昌吉市为例,基于PLUS模型和当量因子法预测2030年多种情景下土地利用和生态系统服务价值（ESV）的时空变化特征,同时进行Pearson相关分析和双变量空间自相关分析探讨各生态系统服务间的权衡协同关系。结果表明,2010—2030年昌吉市土地利用结构变化明显,其中城市发展情景下变化最明显,生态保护情景下变化最缓和。2010—2020年,昌吉市ESV减少6.93亿元。2020—2030年,城市发展情景、耕地保护情景和自然发展情景下ESV分别减少6.53亿、6.26亿、6.11亿元;生态保护情景下ESV增加0.50亿元,各单项ESV也呈增长趋势。昌吉市生态系统服务间均表现出明显的协同关系,北部荒漠以及中部建设用地区域表现为低-低协同,南部林地、草地主要为高-高协同,高-低权衡和低-高权衡呈点状在湿地周围分布。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 多情景预测, PLUS模型, 权衡协同, 昌吉市

Abstract: Taking Changji City of Xinjiang Province as an example, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of land use and ecosystem service value （ESV） under multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted based on the PLUS model and the equivalent factor method. At the same time, Pearson correlation analysis and bivariate spatial auto-correlation analysis were carried out to explore the trade-off/synergies relationship. The results showed that, from 2010 to 2030, the land use structure of Changji City had changed significantly, with the most significant changes under the urban development scenario and the most moderate changes under the ecological protection scenario. From 2010 to 2020, the ESV of Changji City decreased by 693 million yuan. From 2020 to 2030, the ESV would decrease by 653 million yuan, 626 million yuan and 611 million yuan in the urban development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario and natural development scenario, respectively; under the ecological protection scenario, the ESV would increase by 50 million yuan, and the individual ESV also showed an increasing trend. There was an obvious synergistic relationship between ecosystem services in Changji City, with the northern desert and central construction land areas showing low-low synergy, while the southern woodland and grassland were mainly high-high synergy, and the high-low trade-off and low-high trade-off were distributed around the wetland in a dotted pattern.

Key words: ecosystem service value, multi-scenario forecasting, PLUS model, trade-off/synergies, Changji City

中图分类号:

X171.1

陈梦茜, 王承武, 闫天亮. 多情景下昌吉市生态系统服务价值预测及权衡协同研究[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2025, 64(1): 16-22.

CHEN Meng-xi, WANG Cheng-wu, YAN Tian-liang. Study on prediction and trade-off/synergies of ecosystem service value in Changji City under multiple scenarios[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2025, 64(1): 16-22.

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