关键词: 粮食作物, 粮食生产, 时空演变, 驱动力, 山西省

Abstract: This study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of grain production in Shanxi Province by employing the gravity center migration model, logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI), exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and grey correlation analysis, with 114 Counties (Cities, Districts) in Shanxi Province as research units. The results showed that the planting area of grain crops exhibited minor fluctuations in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2021. The gravity centers of both yield and planting area for grain crops (cereals, legumes, and tubers) shifted northward with varying degrees during the study period.Cold spots and sub-cold spots of grain crops and cereal yields showed decreasing trends, while hot spots and sub-hot spots displayed increasing trends from 2005 to 2021. Both cold/sub-cold spots and hot/sub-hot spots of tuber and legume yields demonstrated increasing trends.The yield increase of cereals was primarily attributed to expanded cultivation areas, whereas legume yield decline resulted from reduced per-unit productivity or cultivation areas, and tuber yield decrease was mainly caused by diminished cultivation areas. Key external drivers affecting grain crops (cereals, legumes, and tubers) yields included rural electricity consumption, fertilizer application, effective irrigation area, total population, and mechanized farming area. To enhance sustainable development and supply-demand balance of grain crops production in Shanxi Province, recommendations included reducing non-agricultural occupation of farmland, improving land quality, upgrading agricultural infrastructure, and optimizing subsidy mechanisms.

Key words: grain crops, grain production, spatiotemporal evolution, driving forces, Shanxi Province