关键词: 双循环, 内外贸一体化, 新疆棉花, 驱动因素, 熵权法

Abstract: From the perspective of “dual circulation”, the impact mechanisms of factor allocation, innovation drive, openness level, and industrial synergy on the cotton industry in Xinjiang were systematically analyzed. In addition, the entropy weight method was used to measure the level of integration between domestic and foreign trade in the cotton industry of Xinjiang and four comparison provinces (Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Hunan) during the period from 2015 to 2022. The results showed that from 2015 to 2020, relying on the first-mover advantage of the “factor + openness” dual-driven strategy, Xinjiang's comprehensive score in internal and external trade integration consistently led that of major production regions in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins. However, during 2021—2022, due to the lag of institutional innovation behind Shandong and Hebei, and the constraint of the coordination dimension by both trade deficits and insufficient investment, although the development of Xinjiang's cotton industry remained at a high level, it was slightly lower than that of Shandong. The prominent issues in the integration of domestic and foreign trade of Xinjiang's cotton were manifested in the following aspects: The uneven allocation and input of resource factors restricted the space for the sustainable play of factor advantages; the relative lag of institutional innovation in the cotton textile industrial chain led to insufficient market competitiveness; the increase in international trade barriers and restrictions hindered the depth and breadth of the integration of domestic and foreign trade; and the insufficient coordination between the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain resulted in a low level of investment-trade integration. The study put forward the following recommendations: Promote the synergistic allocation of “resources-technology-talent”, explore pilot programs for market procurement trade of cotton products, enhance institutional discourse power through standards export and capacity cooperation, and improve the environment for integrated trade in Xinjiang. It also suggested establishing a regional cooperation mechanism covering “planting-processing-certification”, building a China-Central Asia cotton industry alliance, strengthening Xinjiang's role as a central hub for cotton production, and ultimately achieving deep integration and high-quality development of Xinjiang's cotton industry in both domestic and international trade.

Key words: dual circulation, integration of domestic and foreign trade, Xinjiang cotton, driving factors, entropy weight method