关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 土地利用变化, PLUS模型, 多情景模拟, 伊犁河谷

Abstract: Based on the land use data of the Ili River Valley from 2000 to 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use evolution patterns under four scenarios of natural development, economic development, ecological protection, and planning intervention in 2030, and the temporal and spatial dynamic changes and spatial agglomeration characteristics of ecosystem service value (ESV) under each scenario were calculated and quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that under the four development scenarios, the ESV in 2030 in the study area was shown as ecological protection scenario > planning intervention scenario > natural development scenario > economic development scenario. Under the natural development scenario, the area of forest land and grassland decreased significantly;under the economic development scenario, construction land expanded rapidly; under the ecological protection scenario, the rate of forest land reduction slowed down, and under the planning intervention scenario, the area of cultivated land increased substantially. The spatial distribution pattern of ESV in Yili River Valley under multi-scenario simulation in 2020 and 2030 was relatively stable. The high-value area increased under the planning intervention scenario, and the high-value area in the north and south-central region changed to the low-value area under the economic development scenario. The extremely significant hot spots of ESV were mainly distributed in the Ili River Basin and the southern Tianshan Mountains, and the extremely significant cold spots were mostly distributed in the central and northern parts of the valley, corresponding to the spatial pattern of land use. Scientific planning and layout of future land use was the key path to enhance regional ESV and maintain a good ecological environment.

Key words: ecosystem service value, land use change, PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, Ili River Valley