关键词: 畜禽养殖, 甲烷排放, 时空特征, 驱动因素, 农业经济, 脱钩分析, 河北省

Abstract: Taking Hebei Province as the research area, the methane emissions from the livestock and poultry farming from 2013 to 2022 were estimated using the emission factor method specified in the Guidelines for Compiling Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics, driving factors, and decoupling relationship with agricultural economy of regional methane emissions were explored using the centroid model, LMDI factor decomposition model, and Tapio decoupling model. The results showed that, from 2013 to 2022, the annual methane emissions from livestock and poultry farming in Hebei Province reached 482 700 to 706 100 tons, and the emissions showed an overall trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The methane emissions reached the peak in 2015, and then declined and gradually stabilized. In 2022, methane emissions from livestock and poultry farming decreased to 541 600 tons. From 2013 to 2022, the gravity center of methane emissions from livestock and poultry farming in Hebei Province was mainly located in the Xiong’an New Area, and the gravity center was generally shifting northward. Among the driving factors, agricultural production efficiency, agricultural production structure, and population size exerted an inhibitory effect on methane emissions, with agricultural production efficiency showing the most significant inhibition. In contrast, the level of economic development promoted methane emissions. From 2013 to 2022, the relationship between methane emissions from livestock and poultry farming and the agricultural economy in Hebei Province had gone through four states, with strong decoupling being the main trend. From 2018 to 2020, Hebei entered a stage of strong decoupling, with negative growth in methane emissions and positive growth in agricultural economy.

Key words: livestock and poultry farming, methane emissions, spatial and temporal characteristics, driving factors, agricultural economy, decoupling analysis, Hebei Province