Dynamic characteristics and trend prediction of ecological carrying capacity in Dongting Lake area

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.14.004

Abstract

Abstract: The state space method was used to evaluate the evolution of ecological carrying capacity in Dongting Lake area in 2005, 2010 and 2015. The ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area in 2020 and 2025 was simulated and predicted by grey prediction model. The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area exhibited an upward trend from 2005 to 2015. In addition to the carrying capacity of resources and environment, the ecological resilience and social and economic coordination were in a state of overload. From 2020 to 2025, the ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area was expected to continue to increase and remain in the loadable state. Stability and coordination degree of the complex natural, economic and social dynamic system in the area will rise to some extent. The ecological resilience and the coordination of social economy were the main restricting factors for the improvement of ecological carrying capacity. In the future, Dongting Lake area should further transform the economic development mode and strive to improve the ability of ecological system self-regulation and self-maintenance.

Key words: ecological carrying capacity, dynamic simulation, state-space method, gray forecast model, Dongting Lake area

CLC Number:

TAN Jie, HAO Qi, TAN Xue-lan, WU Yi-ze, ZHOU Wei-jun. Dynamic characteristics and trend prediction of ecological carrying capacity in Dongting Lake area[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2020, 59(14): 24-29.

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