Abstract: Taking 24 counties （cities and districts） in Dongting Lake area as the research unit,the agricultural production efficiency of the 24 counties （cities and districts） in Dongting Lake area was evaluated by combining traditional data envelopment analysis model （DEA）, super efficiency DEA model and Tobit model. The analysis of the ordinary DEA model showed that from 2005 to 2015, the production efficiency of 24 counties （cities and districts） in Dongting Lake area had an effective and invalid year. The super efficiency DEA model showed that the agricultural production efficiency of Dongting Lake showed a general decline from 2005 to 2015 years. The Tobit regression analysis found that the agricultural total population,urbanization level, total industrial output value,per capita GDP,average net income of farmers,total retail sales of consumer goods,number of students in ordinary primary schools,number of students in ordinary middle school,the area of disaster affected,the area of disaster and the control area of soil erosion had a significant influence on agricultural production efficiency. And each factor showed positive or negative significant effects in different years.

Key words: agricultural production efficiency, spatio-temporal changes, super efficiency DEA model, Tobit model, Dongting Lake area