Study on high temperature and heat damage risk of mid-season rice in Hubei province under future RCPs scenarios

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.05.036

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the climate change forecast results of global climate model HadGem2-ES output in 2021—2080 under typical concentration paths （stable path RCP 4.5 and high path RCP8.5）, bilinear interpolation and variance correction methods were used to correct and verify. To study the occurrence regularity and risk change of high temperature heat injury of mid-season rice in Hubei province under RCPs scenario. The results showed that the RCPs scenario data can reduce the relative error and root mean square error between simulated data and observed data after variance correction, and reflect the future climate change trend more truly. In the RCPs scenario, the intensity, frequency and risk of high temperature heat injury of mid-season rice in Hubei province from 2051 to 2080 were greater than those in 2021—2050, especially in the RCP8.5 scenario. The risk of high temperature heat damage increased the most in the southeastern part of Hubei province and the low mountain belt of southwestern Hubei province, and the increase of high temperature heat damage in this area was large, and the increase was mainly moderate and severe. The high temperature heat damage was mainly mild in Jianghan Plain and northeast Hubei province. In northwest Hubei, the risk of high temperature heat damage decreased, while the frequency and intensity of high temperature heat damage decreased in some areas.

Key words: mid-season rice, high temperature and heat damage, risk assessment, RCPs scenario

CLC Number:

YE Pei, LIU Ke-qun, LIU Kai-wen, QIN Peng-cheng, ZHAO Xiao-fang, YANG Qing-qing. Study on high temperature and heat damage risk of mid-season rice in Hubei province under future RCPs scenarios[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2022, 61(5): 205-213.

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