Abstract: Taking Changzhou city as an example, the population and economic bearing scale prediction were explored based on the ecological footprint model. The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of Changzhou city increased from 2.970 7 hm² in 2009 to 3.994 1 hm² in 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 6.10%. The ecological footprint was mainly agricultural land, fossil energy land and water area, and the smallest was forest land. The per capita ecological carrying capacity of Changzhou city basically showed a downward trend from 2009 （0.304 0 hm²） to 2014 （0.290 8 hm²）, with an average annual change rate of -0.73%. Agricultural land （more than 55.32%） and construction land （more than 37.18%） contributed to the main ecological carrying capacity, and their proportion in the total ecological carrying capacity increased from 94.33% in 2009 to 94.64% in 2014. Water and fossil energy land supply was insufficient, and the area of forest land for development and utilization was not large. From 2009 to 2014, the per capita ecological deficit showed an obvious increasing trend, and the increasing trend of ecological pressure was basically consistent with the per capita ecological deficit. The percapita ecological deficit was 3.738 2 hm² in 2014, and the ecological pressure index was 12.855 1. The main ecological deficit was caused by agricultural land and fossil energy land, while construction land was the main source of ecological surplus. In general, the land demand of Changzhou city exceeds the scope of ecological carrying capacity, so it was necessary to further adjust the land use structure and optimize the spatial pattern of land.

Key words: carrying capacity of resources and environment, ecological footprint, population carrying capacity, Changzhou city