Discussion on abundant year and lean year for relative meteorological yield of cotton in Hubei Province based on climatic suitability

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2023.03.036

Abstract

Abstract: The climate suitability of cotton in each growth period was calculated by selecting three climate influencing factors（light, air temperature and effective precipitation） based on meteorological data of 50 counties （cities and districts） in cotton planting areas of Hubei Province from 1981 to 2020. The entropy weight method was used to weight the climate suitability of each growth period to obtain the comprehensive climate suitability of the whole growth period in Hubei Province, and the prediction model of cotton relative meteorological yield in abundant and lean years based on the comprehensive climate suitability was constructed. The results showed that, since 1981, the climate suitability of cotton in Hubei Province had shown a fluctuating trend of “down-up-down”. Compared with other growth periods, the flowering and bolling stage of cotton was suitable for cotton growth. The variation coefficient of the sowing and bud stages was large, which was 21.9% and 20.9%, respectively. The proportion of historical fitting accuracy by applying the prediction model of cotton relative meteorological yield in abundant and lean years was 94.7%. The cotton relative meteorological yield extrapolation forecast from 2019 to 2020 was completely consistent with the fact, which showed that the fitting result was good and could basically meet the needs of business services.

Key words: climatic suitability, relative meteorological yield, abundant year and lean year, cotton, effective precipitation, entropy weight method

CLC Number:

S561

TANG Yang, QIN Peng-cheng, LIU Zhi-xiong, LIU Kai-wen, XIAO Wei-yu. Discussion on abundant year and lean year for relative meteorological yield of cotton in Hubei Province based on climatic suitability[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2023, 62(3): 230-234.

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