HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES ›› 2020, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (22): 81-85.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.22.014

• Resource & Environment • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The effects of future climate change on soybean growth period and yield in Henan province under RCP scenario

LIU Jia1,2, LI Cong1,2, LI Tong-xiao1,3, LIU Yan4   

  1. 1. CMA-Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;
    2. Zhengzhou Meteorological Bureau,Zhengzhou 450000,China;
    3. Henan Institute of Meteorological Science,Zhengzhou 450000,China;
    4. Anyang Meteorological Bureau,Anyang 455000,Henan,China
  • Received:2020-06-22 Online:2020-11-25 Published:2020-12-30

Abstract: Based on the soybean observational data and the corresponding climatic data of Linzhou city in2008—2017,Huangfanqu Farm in2006—2017,Zhengyang county in2000—2008 were selected to verify the model of CROPGRO-Soybean,and the model parameters suitable for the southern,central and northern regions of Henan province were found.By introducing the climate scenario data of future typical concentration paths RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the response of soybean growth period and yield to climate change in the future climate change scenario were analyzed.The results showed that the flowering period and the first seed period of soybean in Henan showed a prolonging trend under the climate conditions of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the future typical concentration paths,and the prolonging days under the climate conditions of RCP8.5 were more than that of RCP4.5.The prolongation of flowering period of soybean in Henan was the central >the north >the south.And the prolongation of first seed period of soybean in Henan was the central >the south >the north.The maturation period of soybean in Henan was similar under the climate conditions of future typical concentration paths RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the prolongation trend of soybean maturation period showed the north >the central >the south.Soybean yield in Henan province showed a decreasing trend under the climate conditions of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,and the reduction under the climate conditions of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5.The soybean yield in Henan decreased rapidly from south to north,but the trend in the central region was the smallest.

Key words: RCP scenario, soybean, climate change, growth period, yield

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