Abstract: Taking Changji City of Xinjiang Province as an example, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of land use and ecosystem service value （ESV） under multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted based on the PLUS model and the equivalent factor method. At the same time, Pearson correlation analysis and bivariate spatial auto-correlation analysis were carried out to explore the trade-off/synergies relationship. The results showed that, from 2010 to 2030, the land use structure of Changji City had changed significantly, with the most significant changes under the urban development scenario and the most moderate changes under the ecological protection scenario. From 2010 to 2020, the ESV of Changji City decreased by 693 million yuan. From 2020 to 2030, the ESV would decrease by 653 million yuan, 626 million yuan and 611 million yuan in the urban development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario and natural development scenario, respectively; under the ecological protection scenario, the ESV would increase by 50 million yuan, and the individual ESV also showed an increasing trend. There was an obvious synergistic relationship between ecosystem services in Changji City, with the northern desert and central construction land areas showing low-low synergy, while the southern woodland and grassland were mainly high-high synergy, and the high-low trade-off and low-high trade-off were distributed around the wetland in a dotted pattern.

Key words: ecosystem service value, multi-scenario forecasting, PLUS model, trade-off/synergies, Changji City