湖北农业科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (11): 40-43.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.11.010

• 资源·环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

日光温室内最高气温和最低气温预报模式的建立

张仁祖1, 张利华1, 高苹2, 李轲1, 张佩2, 王晓彬3, 吴世明3   

  1. 1.徐州市农业气象试验站,江苏 徐州 221000;
    2.江苏省气象服务中心,南京 210008;
    3.徐州市气象局,江苏 徐州 221000
  • 收稿日期:2019-03-21 出版日期:2019-06-10 发布日期:2019-12-05
  • 作者简介:张仁祖(1968-),男,江苏洪泽人,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事农业气象预报服务工作,(电话)15205208517(电子信箱)Zhangrenzu.xz@163.com。

Establishment of maximum and minimum temperature forecast models in sunlight greenhouse

ZHANG Ren-zu1, ZHANG Li-hua1, GAO Ping2, LI Ke1, ZHANG Pei2, WANG Xiao-bin3, WU Shi-ming3   

  1. 1.Agricultural Meteorological Experiment Station of Xuzhou,Xuzhou 221000,Jiangsu,China;
    2.Jiangsu Meteorological Service Center,Nanjing 210008,China;
    3.Xuzhou Bureau of Meteorology,Xuzhou 221000,Jiangsu,China
  • Received:2019-03-21 Online:2019-06-10 Published:2019-12-05

摘要: 为了提高设施农业气象服务能力,减轻气象灾害损失,利用日光温室内外气象观测资料, 通过对影响日光温室内气温变化的因子进行分析,建立了包含天气类型、季节因子信息的日光温室内最高气温和最低气温的预报模型,克服了按照不同天气类型和不同季节分别建立预报模型的繁琐,所建模型简单易用,物理意义明确,均通过了统计检验,拟合回归好,预报准确率高,能够满足业务需求,可在防灾减灾救灾气象预报服务中应用。

关键词: 日光温室, 最高气温, 最低气温, 预报模式

Abstract: To improve the meteorological service for agricultural facilities and reduce the losses resulting from meteorological disasters, the maximum and minimum temperature forecast models were establish through analysis on factors affecting temperature change inside the sunlight greenhouse and using meteorological observations data from inside and outside the sunlight greenhouse. The model takes weather type and season into consideration, hence saving the trouble of establishing models separately according to different weather type and season. The forecast model is easy to use and has clear physical meaning, and it also passed statistical tests with good regression fitting and high forecast accuracy. It can meet the needs of practical use and can be applied to weather forecasting service in disaster prevention, reduction and relief.

Key words: sunlight greenhouse, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, forecast model

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