关键词: 土地利用与覆被变化（Land use and land cover chang,LUCC）, GIS, 重庆市主城区, 土地利用, 马尔可夫矩阵模型

Abstract: Based on 1988, 2000 and 2010 TM image data, combined with remote sensing and GIS technology the Chongqing city urban area from 1988 to 2010 of land use and cover change （LUCC） characteristics and the status of land use were revealed, and the migration of city of center of gravity was studied. 22 years of land conversionwas analyzed by using markov chain model, the development trend of Chongqing’s main urban area in the next 40 years was predicted. The results showed that from 1988 to 2010, all kinds of land areas in the main urban area of Chongqing city were changed, urban construction area increased by 593.95 km², and forest and grassland area increased by 102.8 km², and water area decreased by 166.85 km², and cultivated land decreased by 427.97 km², and unused land decreased by 101.93 km². In the past 22 years, the government had vigorously developed urban areas, and also paid attention to soil and water conservation and afforestation. Markov predicted that Chongqing’s main urban areas will maintain this trend for a long time to come.

Key words: land-use and land-cover change（LUCC）, GIS, main urban area of Chongqing city, land use, Markov matrix mode