关键词: 冬小麦（Triticum aestivum L.）, 灌浆结实期, 阴雨寡照, 灾害, 空间分布

Abstract: The meteorological data at 113 meteorological stations from 1980 to 2017 and the records of growth stages and yield of winter wheat at 24 agro-meteorological stations were used to determine the correlations between the components of winter wheat yield and meteorological factors during the grain-filling stage, and the wheat growing areas in Sichuan basin were divided into five zones. The average temperature, the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, the sunshine hours, and the number of continuous rainy days during the grain-filling period of winter wheat were selected as indicator factors to address the effects of continuous rainy weather disaster on winter wheat. The principal component analysis method was used to construct the comprehensive index. The frequencies of continuous rainy weather disaster during the grain-filling stage were calculated and the basin areas were identified as, slight （0.45<F<0.70）, moderate（0.70<F<0.87） and severe（F≥0.87） disaster areas according to the index classification. The results showed that the probability of continuous rain disaster in most parts of the Sichuan basin was around 30%, with a higher probability in the southeast and a relatively lower probability in the northwest.

Key words: winter wheat（Triticum aestivum L.）, grain-filling stage, cloudy and rainy weather, disaster, spatial distribution