关键词: 农业现代化, 时空演变, 空间分析, 农用机械总动力, 影响因素, 咸阳市

Abstract: To promote the development of agricultural modernization in Xianyang City, the spatial autocorrelation analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis, and Pearson correlation analysis were used to examine the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural mechanization development in Xianyang City. The results showed that from 2010 to 2024, the total power of agricultural machinery in Xianyang City increased from 249.1×10⁴ kW to 306.1×10⁴ kW, representing an increase of 22.9%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5%. The Global Moran's I increased from 0.492 to 0.583, indicating significant spatial clustering of the total power of agricultural machinery with continuously enhanced spatial synergy. The spatial distribution pattern was characterized by higher values in the south and lower values in the north, as well as higher values in plains and lower values in hilly areas. High-value areas were concentrated in the southern plain grain-producing regions and suburban agricultural zones, while low-value areas were distributed in the northern hilly and mountainous regions. The centroid of the total power of agricultural machinery shifted northwestward by approximately 13 km, reflecting the notable effectiveness and accelerated development of the promotion of characteristic industry mechanization in the northern region. The total power of agricultural machinery showed a highly significant (r=0.946, P<0.001) and significant (r=0.783, P<0.01) positive correlation with total agricultural output value and the sown area of major crops, respectively, indicating its important supporting role in agricultural modernization. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of agricultural mechanization in Xianyang City were primarily influenced by natural geographical factors such as topography and climate, as well as policies such as agricultural machinery purchase subsidies, agricultural modernization and rural revitalization. Natural geographical factors dominated the spatial pattern of mechanization, while policy and institutional factors served as the core driving force behind the growth and pattern evolution of agricultural mechanization.

Key words: agricultural modernization, spatiotemporal evolution, spatial analysis, total power of agricultural machinery, influencing factors, Xianyang City