关键词: “双碳”目标, 国土空间, 碳排放, 情景模拟, 管控策略, 山西省

Abstract: Based on remote sensing data of land use and socio-economic data in Shanxi Province from 2000 to 2020, the IPCC carbon emission accounting method was employed to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of territorial spatial carbon emissions and land use in Shanxi Province. Three scenarios—the baseline scenario, a low-carbon scenario, and an enhanced low-carbon scenario were constructed by integrating the PLUS model and the Kaya identity. The evolution trends of territorial spatial land use and carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 were simulated, and the achievement of the "dual carbon"(carbon peaking and carbon neutrality)goals under different scenarios was evaluated. The results indicated that the total territorial spatial carbon emissions in Shanxi Province continued to rise from 2000 to 2020, with construction land identified as the main carbon emission source and cultivated land and forest land as the main carbon sinks. The multi-scenario simulation results showed that under the baseline scenario, the carbon peak was delayed until 2040 and carbon neutrality could not be achieved; under both the low-carbon and the enhanced low-carbon scenarios, the peak would be reached by 2030, but only the enhanced low-carbon scenario could achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The change in territorial spatial pattern was found to lead to significant carbon emission effects, and the key factor driving carbon emission growth was the disordered expansion of construction land. Based on the territorial spatial pattern and the level of achievement of the "dual carbon" goals under each scenario, targeted and differentiated territorial spatial control strategies were proposed.

Key words: "dual carbon"(carbon peaking and carbon neutrality)goals, territorial space, carbon emissions, scenario simulation, control strategies, Shanxi Province