Abstract: A scheme of development of agriculture was put forword by the combined regression-time series （ARMA） combined model.Based on the historical data of Ankang city's main agricultural products, the corresponding effective forecasting model is established. The agricultural development of Ankang city at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan was predicted and the reasons were analyzed. Several suggestions for promoting agricultural development in Ankang city are proposed.

Key words: agricultural development, forecast, time series （ARMA） combined model, regression, Ankang city