HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES ›› 2020, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (9): 20-23.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.09.004

• Resource & Environment • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on meteorological grade prediction of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) in Zigong city

LUO Wei1,2, DUAN Xiu-rong2, ZHONG Li3, WANG Ru-lin1,4, LI Qiang2   

  1. 1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorological, China Meteorology Administration /Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072,China;
    2. Zigong Meteorological Bureau, Zigong 643000, Sichuan, China;
    3. Fushun County Plant Quarantine Station, Fushun 643200, Sichuan, China;
    4. Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center,Chengdu 610072, China
  • Received:2020-02-18 Published:2020-07-22

Abstract: The effect of meteorological conditions on occurrence of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) of rice(Oryza sativa L.) in Zigong city, Sichuan province were studied by using historical and meteorological data of the same period from 2000 to 2018. Meteorological factors with significant correlation and clear biological significance were selected through the analysis of the quantity of inducible moth of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) under the lamp and meteorological condition, and the multiple regression analysis was used to establish the meteorological forecast model of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) in Zigong city. The results showed that the average temperature in winter in Zigong city had the most significant influence on the meteorological level of Chilo suppressalis (Walker), followed by the temperature, precipitation and humidity in each period of the following year, and the higher winter temperature was the most important meteorological factor that caused the meteorological grade of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) to be 3 ~ 4 for many years. The fitting accuracy rate of meteorological grade of historical regression test reached 72%, and the accuracy rate of meteorological grade of 2018 test report reached 100%, indicated that the model has a good prediction effect and can provide scientific meteorological decision-making basis for the control of Chilo suppressalis (Walker) in Zigong city.

Key words: rice(Oryza sativa L.), Chilo suppressalis (Walker), meteorological grade, prediction research, Zigong city

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