Abstract: Based on panel data from Xinjiang from 2012 to 2021, an evaluation index system was constructed across five dimensions: Resource conservation and utilization, environmental management in production areas, agricultural ecological restoration, green industry development, and green technology support. The entropy weight method, TOPSIS model, and obstacle factor diagnosis model were employed to empirically analyze the level and hindering factors of agricultural green development in Xinjiang. The results indicated that from 2012 to 2021, the development level showed a continuous upward trend, with particularly notable progress in green technology and industry development; since 2019, the region entered a relatively high development stage, although substantial potential for improvement remained in resource conservation and environmental management; the obstacle factors evolved in distinct phases: Prior to 2018, the primary constraints centered on production efficiency and resource utilization, from 2019 to 2021, the main obstacles shifted toward environmental pressure and ecological restoration indicators. To promote agricultural green development in Xinjiang, the implementation of short-term “quick-win” measures such as agricultural plastic film recycling and precision fertilization was suggested to rapidly mitigate environmental pressure. For the medium to long term, systematic reforms—including the development of the agricultural services sector and the promotion of energy structure transformation—were recommended to comprehensively reshape agricultural production models and ultimately achieve a synergistic balance between agricultural output and ecological conservation.

Key words: agricultural green development, entropy-weighted TOPSIS model, obstacle factors, Xinjiang