Abstract: Taking the Wuling Mountain area of Guizhou Province as the research area, according to the driving factors, land use data from 2000 to 2020 and the law of land expansion, the spatial distribution pattern of land use in the study area in 2030 under the natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario was simulated by the PLUS-InVEST model, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage from 2000 to 2030 were analyzed. The results showed that, from 2000 to 2020, the area of forest land and construction land in the study area consistently increased, the area of water bodies initially decreased and then increased, and the areas of cultivated land, grassland and wetland continued to decline. The total carbon initially increased and then decreased from 2000 to 2020. From 2020 to 2030, under the natural development scenario, the carbon storage in the study area would continue to decline, while under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios, the carbon storage would increase, with the ecological protection scenario showing a more significant effect. Overall, from 2000 to 2030, carbon density exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of being higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. Meanwhile, there was abundant and dense carbon storage centered around the Fanjing Mountain Nature Reserve and its adjacent areas. Declining regions were mainly distributed near administrative centers, areas with convenient transportation, and along the Wujiang River and Yuanjiang River basins in the study area. Under the ecological protection scenario, land use in the Wuling Mountains area of Guizhou Province could strategically integrate various land functions, shifting carbon storage from a decrease to an increase. This was crucial for optimizing regional land space and ecological restoration.

Key words: carbon storage, PLUS model, InVEST model, land use, spatio-temporal evolution, Wuling Mountain area of Guizhou Province