Abstract: In order to coordinate economic development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection, the Hotan Prefecture in Xinjiang was taken as the research area. Based on the land use data from 1990 to 2020, 12 driving factors in natural, social and economic aspects, and three scenarios of economic development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection were set to simulate the land use status in 2050 by the PLUS model. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, the study area was dominated by unused land. The area of unused land, cultivated land, construction land and grassland showed an increasing trend, while the area of water and forest land decreased significantly. Taking 2010 as the base period, the PLUS model was used to predict the land use status in 2020, and the results were compared with the actual data. The results showed that the overall accuracy of the model was 0.987, the Kappa coefficient was 0.971, and the simulation effect was good. Multi-scenario simulations showed that under the cultivated land protection scenario, the area of cultivated land increased the most, but the area of forestland and grassland decreased, resulting in the decline of ecosystem services such as soil and water conservation and water retention. Under the economic development scenario, construction land expanded substantially. Under the ecological protection scenario, the intensity of cultivated land protection was relatively moderate, but the total amount was guaranteed, which effectively slowed down the occupation of ecological land. Through comprehensive comparison, the ecological protection scenario was more consistent with the future sustainable development direction of the study area.

Key words: land use change, multi-scenario simulation, PLUS model, Hotan Prefecture