HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES ›› 2022, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (6): 33-40.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.06.007

• Resource & Environment • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Prediction and multi-scenario simulation analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem carbon storage in Nanjing based on LUCC

GUO Tian, WANG Zhi-yu   

  1. School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China
  • Received:2021-12-22 Online:2022-03-25 Published:2022-04-18

Abstract: Using the carbon module in the Markov-Flus model and the InVEST model, the changes and spatial distribution of carbon storage were simulated and predicted in Nanjing in 2030 based on a multi-scenario perspective. The results showed that the main trend of land use change in Nanjing from 2010 to 2015 was the conversion of forest land to cultivated land; The main trend of land use conversion was from ecological function land to construction land from 2015 to 2018. The spatial distribution of carbon stocks in Nanjing was heterogeneous, with the overall performance being high on the north and south sides and low in the middle. Cultivated land was the main land type for the distribution of carbon storage. Comparing the results of multi-scenario simulations, the overall carbon storage under the ecological increase scenario was 0.40×106 t more than the natural development scenario, and the carbon storage of the ecological land around towns had increased significantly; The overall carbon storage under the cultivated land increase scenario was higher than the natural development scenario. The scenario increased by 0.61×106 t, and carbon storage in all regions except urban areas would increase. It was predicted that the carbon storage of Nanjing would further decline in the future, and the combination of cultivated land protection and ecological protection could effectively increase the carbon storage of the regional terrestrial ecosystem.

Key words: carbon storage, Markov-Flus model, InVEST model, scenario simulation, Nanjing city

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