Abstract: To explore the impact effect and mechanism of agricultural new quality productivity on carbon emissions,based on provincial panel data from 13 major grain-producing regions between 2012 and 2023, an evaluation system for agricultural new quality productivity was constructed. The system encompassed new agricultural labourers, means of labour, and objects of labour. The two-way fixed effects model, mediating effect model, and quantile regression were used to empirically analyze its carbon reduction effects. The results showed that agricultural new quality productivity significantly and robustly reduced carbon emissions, a result that remained valid after multiple robustness tests. This effect was primarily achieved by promoting the transition of smallholder farmers toward moderate-scale operations, with the expansion of operational scale serving as a key mediating mechanism. A heterogeneity analysis revealed that the carbon reduction effect was more pronounced in northern regions than in southern regions, and this effect was consistent across high-, medium-, and low-emission areas. Based on this, it was recommended to strengthen policy support, optimize market guidance, and deepen rural institutional reforms, in order to provide references for the green and low-carbon transition of agriculture.

Key words: agricultural new quality productivity, carbon emissions, major grain-producing regions, two-way fixed effects, mediating effect