关键词: 农业产业链, 技术创新链, 融合, 系统动力学模型, 仿真

Abstract: Using the dynamic feedback loop analysis method of system dynamics, the key dynamic elements and their causal feedback relationships within the three subsystems of the integrated development system of the agricultural industry chain and the technological innovation chain were analyzed, and the mechanism behind the integrated development of the agricultural industry chain and the technological innovation chain was clarified. On this basis, a system dynamics model was established and real data were input for policy simulation. Under the existing scenario without altering any parameters, shortcomings in the integrated development of China′s agricultural industry chain and technological innovation chain were identified. Further policy simulations revealed that the key to promoting integrated development lay in strengthening the technological innovation capabilities of leading agricultural enterprises and innovation entities in academia and research, improving the success rate of collaborative innovation and the transformation rate of technological achievements, optimizing the allocation structure of government financial investment in science and technology, building a sound environment for integrated development of the two chains, and systematically advancing the deep integration of the two chains. Policy recommendations were proposed to achieve new breakthroughs in the integration of the two chains.

Key words: agricultural industry chain, technological innovation chain, integration, system dynamics model, simulation