关键词: 数字技术, 粮食生产, 大面积单产, 多元回归, 中介效应, 山东省

Abstract: The pathways and quantitative effects of digital technology on large-area yield improvement of grain crops were explored to provide policy references for accelerating the development of new-quality agricultural productivity and implementing the "New Round of 100 Billion Jin Grain Production Capacity Enhancement Initiative". Based on field survey data from 300 grain crop farming households across 12 counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province, a digital technology application index was constructed. Multiple regression analysis and the mediating effect model were employed to empirically test the pathways and effects of digital technology on large-area yield improvement of grain crops. The results showed that for every one-unit increase in the digital technology application index, the average yield increment rate of grain production increased by 0.152 percentage points (P<0.01). Precision operation, intelligent decision-making and large-area service were all significant mediating variables for digital technology to empower yield improvement. The effect of digital technology was more pronounced among large-area farmers, revealing a synergistic effect between economies of scale and technology application. High costs, inadequate infrastructure, and insufficient technical training were the main factors currently constraining the promotion of digital technologies. It was recommended to systematically advance the adoption and application of digital agriculture through fiscal subsidies, infrastructure development, technical training, industry-academia-research integration, and regional coordination, thereby providing scientific and technological support for building agriculture into a modernized major industry.

Key words: digital technology, grain production, large-area yield, multiple regression, mediating effect, Shandong Province