关键词: RCEP国家, 农产品出口, 引力模型, 贸易潜力, 山东省

Abstract: The relationship between Shandong Province and RCEP agricultural products export trade from 2007 to 2021 was analyzed by selecting the data of Shandong Province and RCEP agricultural products export trade, and the empirical analysis was carried out by using the expansion trade gravity model. The results showed that the economic size (GDP), population size and opening-up level of RCEP member countries promoted the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province, while the relative distance between RCEP member countries and Shandong Province, the proportion of agricultural employment, whether they were developed economies and whether there were common economic and trade organizations had inhibitory effects on the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province; the average trade potential of Shandong Province’s agricultural products to RCEP countries showed pioneering trade, while the trade potential coefficient of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam had decreased significantly, and had been transformed from potential re-shaping to great potential. Japan, South Korea, Australia, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and other countries showed pioneering potential. Myanmar showed potential for re-shaping. Based on this, the following suggestions were put forward: Pay full attention to the signing of the RCEP agreement and stabilize the export growth rate; focus on optimizing the export structure of agricultural products, and strengthen the characteristic and advantageous industries; fully tap the potential of export trade and open up export market space; do a good job in connecting and providing services to RCEP.

Key words: RCEP countries, export of agricultural products, gravity model, trade potential, Shandong Province