HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES ›› 2020, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (21): 201-207.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2020.21.044

• Economy & Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Present situation and prospect of soybean production in China

WANG Yu1, LI Gan-qiong1, YU Wen1, FENG Yao2, ZHONG Xin3, LIU Ran4, XU Shi-wei1   

  1. 1. Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS, Beijing 100081,China;
    2. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning of CAAS, Beijing 100081,China;
    3. China State Farms & Tropical Agriculture, Beijing 100081,China;
    4. AstraZeneca, Shanghai 201210,China
  • Received:2020-04-26 Online:2020-11-10 Published:2020-12-21

Abstract: Based on the historical data of soybean from 1949 in China, this study analyzed the variation law, distribution characteristics and fluctuation period of soybean yield in detail, sowing area and per unit yield all regions, discussed the important factors, which affected soybean production in China, and established the prediction model of soybean per unit yield in China (index fitting curve, linear fitting curve and polynomial fitting curve) to analyze the future soybean production in China from 2020 to 2035. It is found that the increase of soybean production in China mainly comes from the increase of per unit yield since the founding of the people’s Republic of China; Compared with other food varieties, the soybean production in China has the characteristics of relatively concentrated area, high fluctuation frequency, short fluctuation period and large fluctuation range; It is estimated that China’s soybean production will reach 25 million tons in 2030 and 27 million tons in 2035, which is lower than that of the United States, Brazil and other countries, but far higher than that of Canada, Australia Asia and India.

Key words: soybean(Glycine max L.), production, simulation, prospect

CLC Number: