Abstract: Based on land-use datasets from 2000 to 2020, the equivalent factor method, spatial autocorrelation test and PLUS model were adopted to explore the changing characteristics of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV) in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2020. Land-use change and the temporal and spatial evolution of ESV under three scenarios (natural development, production-construction and ecological protection) in 2030 were simulated and predicted. This study aimed to provide scientific support for ecological environment protection and green transformation of the urban agglomeration. The results showed that unused land and grassland were the dominant land-use types from 2000 to 2020. In terms of land-use transfer, unused land and cropland had the largest incoming area, while grassland exhibited the largest outgoing area. The ESV of the study area presented a fluctuating decreasing trend, with a total reduction of 10.154 billion yuan. High-high ESV clusters were mainly distributed in the central region, whereas low-low clusters were concentrated in the northeastern and southern parts. In 2030, the ESV under the natural-development, production-construction and ecological-protection scenarios would reach 209.756 billion yuan, 204.737 billion yuan and 212.145 billion yuan, respectively. The three scenarios shared similar spatial patterns: high-value areas were concentrated in the west, northwest and central zones, and low-value areas were mainly located in the north and south. The ecological-protection scenario was more conducive to improving the ecosystem service functions of the study area.

Key words: ecosystem service value (ESV), PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, land use change, urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains