HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES ›› 2022, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (15): 80-84.doi: 10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2022.15.012

• Resource & Environment • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Cultivated land area change and prediction by the principal component regression and GM （1,1） model in Ankang City

ZHANG Jian-dong1,2,3, WANG Li1,2, WANG Heng1, LUO Kun-li4   

  1. 1. School of Tourism & Environment, Ankang University, Ankang 725000, Shaanxi, China;
    2. Academician and Expert Workstation of Shaanxi, Ankang 725000, Shaanxi, China;
    3. Research Center for Rural Revitalization in Southern Shaanxi,Ankang 725000, Shaanxi, China;
    4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2022-06-29 Online:2022-08-10 Published:2022-08-25

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Abstract: The dynamic change of cultivated land area in Ankang City from 2010 to 2020 was quantitatively evaluated, and the change of cultivated land area was forecasted and analyzed by using principal component regression and GM （1,1） grey forecasting model. The results showed that the area of arable land in Ankang City decreased year by year from 2010 to 2020, with a total reduction of 15 773 hm2 was reduced. Principal component regression analysis showed that the main factors affecting the change of cultivated land area in Ankang City were socio-economic factors （permanent population, output vaule of primary industry, output vaule of secondary industry, GDP（Gross Domestic Product）, urbanization rate, growth rate of total fixed asset investment and fiscal revenue）; GM（1,1） model predicted that the area of arable land in Ankang City would be reduced to 355 269.4 hm2 in 2024. With the rapid development of economy, the continuous expansion of cities and the increase of resident population, it is urgent to protect the arable land and improve the land.

Key words: area of cultivated land, principal component regression analysis, GM （1, 1） model, Ankang City

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