Dynamic forecast of cereals yield in Liaoning province based on influence index for bumper or poor harvest from historic yield

doi:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2021.22.041

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the influence index for bumper or poor harvest from historic yield, the dynamic forecast models for spring maize, rice, soybean of Liaoning province and 14 cities in 2016 were constructed, the dynamic forecast technology of cereals yield in Liaoning province was studied. The results showed that the forecast accuracy of unit yield of spring maize, rice, soybean in Liaoning province were generally over 80%, in different forecast time, the forecast accuracy of rice yield were generally higher than the other two, and the results were stable. This technology can realize the dynamic forecast of the three grain crops in Liaoning province and meet the needs of production forecast business of provincial and municipal crops in Liaoning province, in order to provide technical support for timely and accurate production prediction in the region.

Key words: influence index, yield forecast, spring maize, rice, soybean, Liaoning province

CLC Number:

S165.27

WANG He-ran, ZHANG Qi, CHEN Peng-shi, ZHAO Ming, LIU Dong-ming, HUANG Yan, HUANG Yue. Dynamic forecast of cereals yield in Liaoning province based on influence index for bumper or poor harvest from historic yield[J]. HUBEI AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, 2021, 60(22): 195-200.

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