Abstract: Taking 276 poverty-stricken farmers in Y Township, Hotan Prefecture as the research object, a poverty-returning risk evaluation index system was constructed, including six primary indicators of income, health, education, employment, resources and social network, and 22 secondary indicators. The weight was determined by combining the analytic hierarchy process and the CRITIC weighting method, and the risk of returning to poverty of the poverty-stricken farmers in the region was analyzed and evaluated. The research results showed that the comprehensive weights under the combination of subjective and objective weighting methods were more referable and practical. The employment, social network and income weights in the index system had a large weight, among which the national common language mastery level of the labor, the diversity of employment at home and government assistance were the factors that had a greater impact on the return of poverty-stricken farmers in Y Township. The main part of the sample farmers was B-level farmers with a low risk of returning to poverty, and higher-risk C-level farmers and high-risk D-level farmers account for 27.17% and 0.73% respectively, which required timely intervention and control.

Key words: risk assessment of return to poverty, index system, analytic hierarchy process, CRITIC weighting method, Hotan Prefecture